Navigating Uncertainty: Decision-Making Strategies for Leaders in Challenging Times
Navigating Uncertainty: Decision-Making Strategies for Leaders in Challenging Times
Leveraging the the Scout Mindset and Cynefin Framework to Tackle Complex Challenges
This blog is inspired by topics covered in Episode 10: Leading a Nation through a Global Pandemic with Sir Ashley Bloomfield.
If you haven’t listened to it yet, check it out on Apple, Spotify, Substack or wherever you get your podcasts.
In an era of unprecedented events, mastering decision-making under uncertainty has never been more important.
The COVID-19 pandemic serves as a stark reminder of this as it highlights how fragile our civilisation is in the face of deadly pathogens. It emphasizes the urgent need to bolster our political, technical and social structures to withstand future crises.
As a start in this direction, leaders must refine their strategies for navigating high-stakes decisions in uncertain situations.
The Mindset.
Julia Galef’s Book ‘The Scout Mindset’, offers a valuable perspective for developing an effective decision-making mindset.
In her book, she contrasts two metaphoric worldviews. The first, the Scout Mindset, is committed to the search for truth regardless of where it takes them. This earnest and humble curiosity seeks out the ‘warts and all’ of reality, even when it is inconvenient or goes against one’s beliefs.
“The motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish they were”.
In contrast, the Soldier Mindset is steadfast in holding on to one’s core beliefs. This involves typically seeking out information and sources who confirm the position you already hold - also known as confirmation bias. It is about defending a position by ignoring, denying and rationalising information that may contradict one’s prior convictions.
For most of us, the solider mindset is the default position. This is because it is less energy-intensive or risky; you don’t have to change position, risk exposing uncomfortable data or challenge your in-group identity.
"A key factor preventing us from being in scout mindset more frequently is our conviction that we're already in it."
Galef suggests several thought experiments and behaviours to help you test if you are using the scout mindset:
Selective Skeptic Test: Are you comparing the quality of evidence that doesn’t support your pre-existing position to the same standard?
Do you have any good critics? Seek out people who are thoughtful and can provide critical feedback on your decisions.
Status Quo Bias Test: Pretend you’ve already decided against the status quo. How does this outcome affect your decision?
The Approach.
Moving from mindset to action, the Cynefin framework, (pronounced “ku-nev-in”), offers a way to categorise problems to help apply standardised decision-making approaches.12
This is broken up into five problem domains.
The Confused Domain is the starting point, when there is no clarity about which domain applies. The first step is for decision-makers to move from confused to a particular domain. This is done by looking for a relationship between cause and effect in the problem space.
If the problem seems completely unpredictable i.e., cause and effect are completely disordered, you are more likely to start on the left side of the diagram, in the complex or chaos domains.
Disordered vs Ordered Problems.
The Chaotic Domain is a problem space when there is no relationship between cause and effect, i.e. it is the most disordered. With no logical relationships, action must be taken to allow you to get feedback from the problem and hopefully move into another problem space. This helps to establish some form of order and often results in novel practices.
Methodology: Act → Sense → Respond.
Example: The immediate responses to when the COVID-19 outbreak first emerged.
The Complex Domain is where problems may or may not have a relationship between cause and effect, and there may be no specific right answer - even in retrospect. Because of the disordered nature of the problem space, a typical reductionist approach may not uncover the core of the issue. This suggests that initial probing of the problem is used to gather additional information, followed by a response. Often multidisciplinary teams with multifaceted approaches are used to rapidly probe the problem.
Methodology: Probe → Sense → Respond.
Example: The initial approach to COVID-19 in terms of transmission dynamics, impact of different populations, treatment and inteventions. Probing the problem through research and rapid trials, sense to understand outcomes then respond by adapting what is learned. Resulting initially in unique and emergent practices.
If the relationship between cause and effect is connected, this is the Complicated Domain. The enhanced relationship allows for more thorough analysis and the involvement of expertise, which may be synthesised over multiple steps using good practices.
Methodology: Sense → Analyze → Respond.
Example: The development of vaccines for COVID-19 required high levels of expertise, anaylsis and coordination.
The Clear Domain is sometimes called the obvious or simple domain. This is where problems with well-established and tightly coupled cause-and-effect relationships. Here, categorizing the issue is straightforward. Often, this is through protocols, checklists and standardised operating procedures, to ensure appropriate deployment.
Methodology: Sense → Categorize → Respond.
Example: Best practice policies and proceedures for using Personal protective equipment.
What is the biggest lesson the world can learn from the Ebola Outbreak?
A Note on Complacency.
Complacency risks a catastrophic failure where a problem space moves rapidly from the clear domain to chaos. Leaders must be on guard against falling into particular habits, biases and cultures that can undermine thoughtful decision-making.
High-reliability organisations (HROs), like Nuclear Power Plants, share lessons on the necessity of a vigilant safety culture, leadership development, safety prioritisation, training, data tracking and targeted interventions.3
Embracing Probability for the Next Decision.
Recognising decisions under uncertainty are inherently imperfect, Annie Duke’s, ‘Thinking in Bets’, underscores the dimension of probability inherent in all decision-making. Good quality decisions can still result in poor outcomes due to luck and uncontrolled factors. The typical response is to then judge the outcome, rather than the quality of the decision within the context of when it was made. Duke advises a focus on process over outcomes. This perspective also encourages updating your position based on the new evidence and context, adopting a Bayesian approach to refinement (and improvement) of the next decision.
Summary
To successfully navigate uncertain events, leaders require dedicated decision-making tools. It includes the right mindset, a decision-making framework, an understanding of probability and updating beliefs as new evidence comes to light.
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Snowden, David J.; Boone, Mary E. (2007). "A Leader's Framework for Decision Making". Harvard Business Review. 85 (11): 68–76.
Gray, B. (2017, December 20). The Cynefin Framework: Applying an Understanding of Complexity to Medicine. Journal of Primary Healthcare, 9(4), 258–261. https://doi.org/10.1071/HC17002
Veazie S et al. Implementation of High-Reliability Organization Principles. 2019. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK542883/